Mexico

Chispazo odds — every division, derived

Every figure on this page is calculated from the game's published rules. The operator's own odds page is linked below as verification — but the working is here, on this page.

The combinatorics

A standard entry picks 5 numbers from 28. The number of possible combinations is:

C(28, 5) = 98,280

Division odds

DivisionMatchWinning combinationsDerived oddsProbabilityPrizeOperator says
5 aciertos5 main11 in 98,2801.018e-5Jackpot pool share (minimum $10,000 guaranteed)1 in 98,280
4 aciertos4 main1151 in 8550.1170%Pool share1 in 855
3 aciertos3 main2,5301 in 38.852.57%Pool share1 in 39
2 aciertos2 main17,7101 in 5.5518.02%Pool share

"Winning combinations" counts how many of the possible outcomes land in that division. "Operator says" is the operator's published figure — shown so you can check us against them (small differences are their rounding).

Odds of winning any prize

1 in 4.83

Sum of all division probabilities — usually the number the ads quote.

Odds of the top prize

1 in 98,280

One standard game. Two games doubles it — and it's still tiny.

How long are these odds? Winning the top prize is about as likely as calling 16.6 coin flips in a row correctly (216.6 98,280). If you bought one line every draw, at two draws a week you would expect one top-prize win roughly every 945 years.

Sources

Last verified: 2026-08-29