United States (multi-state)

Mega Millions odds — every division, derived

Every figure on this page is calculated from the game's published rules. The operator's own odds page is linked below as verification — but the working is here, on this page.

The combinatorics

A standard entry picks 5 numbers from 70 plus 1 from a separate pool of 24. The number of possible combinations is:

C(70, 5) = 12,103,014 × C(24, 1) = 290,472,336

Division odds

DivisionMatchWinning combinationsDerived oddsProbabilityPrizeOperator says
Match 5 + Mega Ball5 main + 1 supp.11 in 290,472,3363.443e-9Jackpot (annuity or lump sum), rolls until won1 in 290,472,336
Match 55 main + 0 supp.231 in 12,629,2327.918e-8$2M–$10M depending on the built-in multiplier (2×–10×)1 in 12,629,232
Match 4 + Mega Ball4 main + 1 supp.3251 in 893,7611.119e-6$20,000–$100,000 depending on multiplier1 in 893,761
Match 44 main + 0 supp.7,4751 in 38,8592.573e-5$1,000–$5,000 depending on multiplier1 in 38,859
Match 3 + Mega Ball3 main + 1 supp.20,8001 in 13,9657.161e-5$400–$2,000 depending on multiplier1 in 13,965
Match 33 main + 0 supp.478,4001 in 6070.1647%$20–$100 depending on multiplier1 in 607
Match 2 + Mega Ball2 main + 1 supp.436,8001 in 6650.1504%$20–$100 depending on multiplier1 in 665
Match 1 + Mega Ball1 main + 1 supp.3,385,2001 in 85.811.17%$14–$70 depending on multiplier1 in 86
Mega Ball only0 main + 1 supp.8,259,8881 in 35.172.84%$10–$50 depending on multiplier1 in 35

"Winning combinations" counts how many of the possible outcomes land in that division. "Operator says" is the operator's published figure — shown so you can check us against them (small differences are their rounding).

Odds of winning any prize

1 in 23.07

Sum of all division probabilities — usually the number the ads quote.

Odds of the top prize

1 in 290,472,336

One standard game. Two games doubles it — and it's still tiny.

How long are these odds? Winning the top prize is about as likely as calling 28.1 coin flips in a row correctly (228.1 290,472,336). If you bought one line every draw, at two draws a week you would expect one top-prize win roughly every 2,793,003 years.

Sources

Last verified: 2026-08-29